Obama’s ‘Peacetime Accord” was an agreement made when the nations involved were not actively shooting at each other. In 2015, the US and Iran were rivals, but were not at war. Because there was no military emergency, diplomats had time to negotiate and spent 20 months debating and smoothing out details of the proactive measure designed to prevent future conflicts. The multilateral agreement was agreed to by the US, United Kingdom, France, Germany, China and Russia. They all sat at the table and signed the exact same document, and the document carried the weight of international law and was officially backed by the United Nations.
The JCPOA was focused on nuclear non-proliferation and sought to extend the time Iran needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb from a few months to at least a year.
The JCPOA was a highly detailed, ‘front-loaded’ nuclear restriction, that forced Iran to ship 98% of its enriched uranium stockpile out of the country, dismantle two-thirds of its centrifuges, and accepted permanent, intrusive IAEA monitoring in exchange for long-term sanction relief.
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The JCPOA resulted in Iran giving up its immediate path to a nuclear weapon, capping uranium enrichment at 3.67% (which is very low, at a rate that allowed for nuclear power development for energy). The US and P5+1 gave up broad international economic and banking sanctions on Iran, releasing Iran funds that were frozen.
Iran had earned significant revenue from selling oil to countries like China, India, South Korea, and Japan, however, the US and UN had placed heavy sanctions on Iran’s banking system, forbidding international banks from transferring the money back to Tehran. The JCPOA ‘unlocked the vault’ (so to speak) holding these frozen assets, giving Iran the money that was due to them.
In addition to the release of funds that were frozen, there was a $1.7 billion settlement from the US that understandably caused controversy among groups that did not understand the origin. Prior to 1979, when the Islamic Revolution took place, the secular government of Iran (led by the Shah) was a major US ally. Iran contributed $400 million of their own money into a specialized US Department of Defense trust to buy American fighter jets. After the revolution happened and Iran’s regime changed, the US froze the account, keeping (essentially stealing) the $400 million and never delivered the plane that were part of the agreement.
Iran sued the US in an international tribunal in The Hague to get their money back. In 2016, right as the nuclear deal was being implemented, the US realized they were going to lose the lawsuit and be forced to pay astronomical damages as a result (remember the US had an agreement, similar to a preorder of goods that it never delivered on). In the same way that a civil case, won in US courts awards damages (usually in a reasonable amount for interest and hardships caused by a company holding funds that would otherwise be used in the course of daily expenses) the US decided to come to a settlement out of court (in the same way US civil courts function when a company is facing a loss in court and offer a settlement which is a lower amount that would be ordered by the court) if they winning side drops the court case. The US settlement offer was for the original $400 million plus the reasonable accumulated interest from the previous 36 years that the US had been holding and earning its own interest on. The total proposed settlement was $1.3 billion, which Iran agreed to. While this settlement was executed at the same time as the JPCOA, this amount was not related to the nuclear agreement, it had nothing to do with Iran signing the JPCOA and it was an amount that would have been paid with or without the JCPOA. There was no formal mention of the $1.7 billion settlement anywhere in the JCPOA. The only reason it is controversial is that some groups misunderstand the details of these two separate issues and incorrectly pair them together because they happened during the same time frame.
The $1.7 billion would have been given to Iran even if they refused the JPCOA and if the US had not offered the settlement, the international court would have ordered the US to pay a higher amount to Iran because the US took money for goods that they never delivered. It is the situation that would occur if you placed an order from a company, and never received what you purchased. Being an international dispute, the proceedings take a lot longer and are very costly for both sides. Iran was entitled to the money since the US didn’t keep its side of the contract, had the US provided the jets that Iran paid for, refunding Iran would not have been necessary.
So, what did the JCPOA give the parties?
Iran had roughly $100-150 billion in assets frozen from oil sales. It’s reported unfreezing the amount would provide Iran with only about $50-55 billion, since Iran had bad debts and the need to back foreign currency reserves. So, even though $100-150 billion was frozen, after bad debts were resolved, Iran only received a fraction of the frozen amount.
After receiving $50-55 billion, Iran agreed to the following:
Reducing its stockpile enriched uranium by 98%.
Limiting their enriched uranium from 10,000 kilograms to only 300 kilograms (Iran was required to blend down or ship out anything that was over 300 kilograms.
Restriction of enriching uranium past 3.67% (weapons-grade uranium requires 90% enrichment)
Cut operating centrifuges (fast spinning machines that enrich uranium) by two-thirds (going from 20,000 machines (that included newer, more technically advanced machines) down to 5,060 (of their older, less advanced machines).
Placing the unused centrifuges in locked international storage.
Underground enrichment facility at Fordow would be banned from doing any enrichment
Converting the enrichment facility at Fordow into a physics research center.
Redesigning a heavy water nuclear reactor in Arak that could produce weapons-grade plutonium so it could only produce peaceful medical isotopes.
Pulling the reactor’s core out of Arak and filling it with concrete so it could never be used again.
24/7 Access to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor Iran’s entire nuclear supply chain - from uranium mines to the centrifuge manufacturing factories.
If inspectors suspected secret nuclear work at a military base, Iran had a maximum of 24 days to grant access, and if Iran refused a joint panel could trigger a snapback of global sanction.
The one drawback of the JCPOA was that it wasn’t permanent. The agreement included expiration dates:
After 8 years (2023) restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile testing expired.
After 10 years (2025) restrictions on Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing and the number of older centrifuges it could run began to lift.
After 15 years (2030) the 300 kilogram cap on enriched uranium and the 3.67% enrichment limit would expire.
As with any agreement made in any situation, the JCPOA was not perfect, but an agreement that multiple parties make is never going to be perfect for all parties, it would be unreasonable to expect that and impossible to achieve.
The JCPOA worked as it was supposed to from the signing in 2016 until Trump terminated it in 2018. As imperfect as the JCPOA was, it was still something, and the decision to rip it up was insane without having something to take its place, which is exactly what Trump did.
Several years before any of the expiration dates were in sight, Trump got rid of it, removing supervision and oversight for Iran’s nuclear program. Then in 2025 was shocked when information revealed Iran was not abiding to the agreement. Well of course they went back to advancing sciences. Why wouldn’t they?
Regardless of sunsetting and expiration dates, it is reasonable to expect any agreement would be reevaluated and renegotiated after a period of time has elapsed. And none of the dates provided for in the JCPOA was unreasonable. Anytime an agreement is signed, there is an unspoken acknowledgement that at some point adjustments will be needed. Circumstances change, events happen, and nothing stays the same forever… Trump complained about the JCPOA having expiration dates, yet he didn’t even wait for the first date to come due. He cut it off several years before it and provided nothing in its place.
Now, after Trump’s war has cost the lives of many people, he is entering into his own agreement with Iran.
Trump’s agreement includes the following:
Iran will not be required to hand over any highly enriched uranium stockpiles upfront. This will be negotiated after 30-60 days from the signing of the agreement.
Iran will stop active hostilities and restore the shipping lane to prewar transit levels in the strait of Hormuz and the US will unblock the strait of Hormuz.
The US agrees to unfreeze $25 billion in Iranian assets
In summary, Trump’s recent agreement with Iran seems to focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for about $25 billion in frozen funds and a promise to negotiate a nuclear deal.
Trump’s war with Iran was costly. In addition to costs that cannot have a price tag put on, like the 15 American service members that lost their lives, the 538 service members have been injured some will never completely recover from their injuries, 156 Iranians (mostly school children) killed in Iran while at school, and the countless lives of Iranian civilians and service members that were taken or will never be the same again, Americans in the US, who had no say in starting this unconstitutional, illegal, war and were helpless to stop Trump suffered too:
During the first week, the Pentagon reported a $11.3 billion cost for operations ($1.9 billion per day) due to consumption of offensive and defensive precision munitions.
Direct military costs of $29 billion.
Independent fiscal groups estimate the first 60 days costs in excess of $71.1 billion when accounting for destroyed equipment, base repairs, and emergency logistics, which is in addition to the reported $29 billion.
The US missile and ammunition stockpiles have been depleted by around 70%.
Domestic gas prices surged by 53% with no reduction in cost in sight until mid 2027
Massive US military consumption of fuel expected to exceed $1.19 billion in costs
Increased US deficit in excess of $1.85 trillion
Interest for the cost of the first 60 days of conflict totaling $2.4 billion, and an additional $2.4 billion over the next decade.
Then there are other costs that cannot be valued, such as loss of positive reputation, being labeled a terrorist state, the loss of allies, and losing the title as the leader of the free world.
At the end of the day, the war with Iran has been costly. While an agreement seems to have been reached this agreement is essentially for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz was not closed at the onset of this war and no one controlled it. Now, the world will be required to ask for permission from Iran to use the strait, which controls the transport of essential energy materials for the entire world.
This war has benefitted one country. While that country suffered serious loss, in the end they gained power and showed the world they are strong enough to punch far above their weight class. Iran managed to do this while establishing justification for the hardships they imposed on other countries in pure defense of their own survival; but also to gain sympathy from many others as the victims of an irrational, weakened US.
Iran is now aware of the power they have in control of the Strait of Hormuz and also a victory over an advisory who was thought to be all powerful. Despite Trump claiming victory, the agreement that was just made, has a very different message.
References
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